Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 8.769076 10.062954 11.456955 13.067427 14.873526 16.833291 19.117435
2026-01-18 6.674036 8.385347 10.375011 12.846835 15.821901 19.273184 23.564844
2026-01-25 5.684308 7.574018 9.881197 12.882058 16.656013 21.216774 27.114032
2026-02-01 4.951691 6.956253 9.512965 12.975897 17.501114 23.166204 30.740146
2026-02-08 4.327143 6.373116 9.085836 12.893186 18.037024 24.675231 33.806849
2026-02-15 3.806788 5.859635 8.681158 12.772851 18.471084 26.029253 36.695427
2026-02-22 3.437579 5.509517 8.452094 12.847174 19.136382 27.684213 40.022079
2026-03-01 3.202156 5.324485 8.429344 13.191430 20.172803 29.868390 44.143519
2026-03-08 2.854087 4.929431 8.059453 12.991686 20.401898 30.918899 46.714010
2026-03-15 2.467753 4.432199 7.488851 12.439671 20.064069 31.123191 48.064719
2026-03-22 2.331880 4.325234 7.507146 12.777346 21.057441 33.279532 52.301418
2026-03-29 2.189731 4.192308 7.469944 13.018088 21.905074 35.245710 56.325960
2026-04-05 1.990130 3.944719 7.232285 12.929940 22.248461 36.491479 59.364928
2026-04-12 1.803190 3.700573 6.979849 12.797253 22.508547 37.616197 62.263838
2026-04-19 1.660578 3.521558 6.821091 12.803263 22.981268 39.075084 65.715082
2026-04-26 1.547344 3.385846 6.725584 12.906469 23.612072 40.800056 69.638064
2026-05-03 1.417412 3.203888 6.531370 12.820834 23.914780 42.003959 72.771427
2026-05-10 1.295861 3.025540 6.328266 12.702202 24.147954 43.094961 75.752771
2026-05-17 1.210487 2.912155 6.236574 12.775788 24.711132 44.741293 79.683396
2026-05-24 1.164350 2.876688 6.290308 13.118495 25.760314 47.231355 85.080510
2026-05-31 1.060436 2.705191 6.064511 12.919679 25.828027 48.063759 87.746349
2026-06-07 0.930008 2.459807 5.670563 12.370375 25.225508 47.718298 88.407668
2026-06-14 0.898653 2.437758 5.729866 12.706394 26.267001 50.250080 94.039876